Friday, September 30, 2005
On this day:

New flu pandemic could kill up to 150 million people

30/09/2005

A top UN public health expert warned yesterday that a new flu pandemic is expected at any time and could kill anywhere between five million and 150 million people – depending on action taken now to control the bird flu epidemic sweeping through Asia.

Dr David Nabarro of the World Health Organisation called on governments to take immediate steps to address the threat at a news conference following his appointment as the new UN co-ordinator for avian and human influenza.

“We expect the next influenza pandemic to come at any time now, and it’s likely to be caused by a mutant of the virus that is currently causing bird flu in Asia,” he said.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through poultry populations in Asia since 2003, infecting humans and killing at least 65 people, mostly poultry workers, and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions of birds. The virus does not pass from person to person easily but experts believe this could change if the virus mutates.

Nabarro said with the almost certainty of another flu pandemic soon, and experts saying there is a high likelihood of the H5N1 virus mutating, it would be “extremely wrong” to ignore the serious possibility of a global outbreak.

“The avian flu epidemic has to be controlled if we are to prevent a human influenza pandemic,” Nabarro said.

The 1918 flu pandemic killed more than 40 million people, and there were subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 which had lower death rates but caused great disruption, he said. [...]

(Comment from Signs of the Times)

Comment: Things (not the public though) are looking up, eh? See our Signs Flu Supplement for the real origins of the 1918 epidemic and evidence that the current bird flu threat is anything but "natural".

Thursday, September 29, 2005
On this day:

Fears over climate as Artic ice melts at record level

David Adam,
environment correspondent
Thursday September 29, 2005
The Guardian

Coverage is 20% below average for time of year · Destructive cycle could affect Earth's weather
Global warming in the Arctic could be soaring out of control, scientists warned yesterday as new figures revealed that melting of sea ice in the region has accelerated to record levels.


Experts at the US National Snow and Data Centre in Colorado fear the region is locked into a destructive cycle with warmer air melting more ice, which in turn warms the air further. Satellite pictures show that the extent of Arctic sea ice this month dipped some 20% below the long term average for September - melting an extra 500,000 square miles, or an area twice the size of Texas. If current trends continue, the summertime Arctic Ocean will be completely ice-free well before the end of this century.

Ted Scambos, lead scientist at the Colorado centre, said melting sea ice accelerates warming because dark-coloured water absorbs heat from the sun that was previously reflected back into space by white ice. "Feedbacks in the system are starting to take hold. We could see changes in Arctic ice happening much sooner than we thought and that is important because without the ice cover over the Arctic Ocean we have to expect big changes in Earth's weather." [...]

LINK

Saturday, September 24, 2005
On this day:

Superbug´ Germ Kills 3 in Chicago

By ALICIA CHANG
AP Science Writer
Published September 21, 2005,
4:00 PM CDT

Three Chicago-area children have died of a toxic shock syndrome-like illness caused by a superbug they caught in the community and not in the hospital, where the germ is usually found.

The cases show that this already worrisome staph germ has become even more dangerous by acquiring the ability to cause this shock-like condition.

"There´s a new kid on the block," said Dr. John Bartlett of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, referring to the added strength of the superbug known as methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA.

"The fact that there are three community-acquired staph aureus cases is really scary," continued Bartlett, an infectious disease specialist.

The Chicago deaths were described in Thursday´s New England Journal of Medicine.
Health officials do not yet know how the drug-resistant staph causes this new syndrome, but it appears to be rare, said Dr. Clifford McDonald, an epidemiologist with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


However, doctors should be on the lookout for shock-like cases caused by MRSA, said Dr. Robert Daum, a pediatrician at the University of Chicago who co-authored the study.
In 1999, drug-resistant staph infections killed four healthy children ranging in age from 1 to 13 years old in Minnesota and North Dakota. Since then, doctors have actively looked for such infections in their community.


In the cases reported in Thursday´s medical journal, the baby and two toddlers who died were otherwise healthy before they were separately admitted to a Chicago hospital with pneumonia-like symptoms between 2000 and 2004. Doctors believe the children probably inhaled the germ.

The children died within a week of being hospitalized and autopsies showed they suffered from shock and bleeding in the adrenal gland. The infections were caused by MRSA, which is usually not associated with the syndrome.

Until recently, drug-resistant staph infections were limited to hospitals and other health care settings where they can spread to patients with open wounds and cause serious complications.
But infectious disease specialists say a growing number of community-acquired resistant staph infections have struck healthy people outside of hospitals in recent years.


Doctors in Los Angeles treated 14 people with necrotizing fasciitis, informally known as flesh-eating bacteria, caused by the resistant germ.

And in Corpus Christi, Texas, doctors have seen community-acquired resistant staph cases jump from 10 cases a year in the 1990s to more than 400 in 2003.

The first Chicago death occurred in 2000 when a 15-month-old girl was diagnosed with severe pneumonia. She died eight hours later. In 2003, a 9-month-old girl was hospitalized with fever and breathing problems. Her condition deteriorated and she died six days later. A year later, a 17-month-old boy was admitted with respiratory problems and died the next day.

In all three cases, the victims´ conditions progressed from pneumonia to shock.



Tuesday, September 20, 2005
On this day:

This year's fast-forming hurricanes buck trend, puzzle meteoroloists

By Robert Nolin
The Sun-Sentinel
Posted September 20 2005

This year, hurricanes just aren't acting like they used to.

The major storms are bucking traditional patterns by forming in the western, rather than eastern, Atlantic Ocean. Instead of taunting worried residents for days, they materialize, it seems, overnight.

The trend has baffled scientists and ratcheted up panic levels for South Floridians.
"It's crazy," said Robin Wagner, 45, of Hollywood. "They come so quick. With Katrina, before we knew it, it was on us."


Hurricane Katrina swept through Broward and Miami-Dade counties last month as a Category 1 storm -- a scant two days after developing in the Caribbean. Storms typically come to life in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, often near Cape Verde, then pinwheel westward for several days, their ultimate course studied with dread speculation by those in its path.

Link to full story

Sunday, September 18, 2005
On this day:

Tremors may mean 'Big One' on its way

By MARK HUME
Globe and Mail
Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Vancouver - A silent tectonic event, so powerful it has shifted southern Vancouver Island out to sea, but so subtle nobody has felt a thing, is slowly unfolding on the West Coast.
Scientists who are tracking the event with sensitive seismographs and earth orbiting satellites warn it could be a trigger for a massive earthquake -- some time, maybe soon.


But they are quick to add that the imperceptible tremors emanating from deep beneath the surface are sending signals scientists are not yet able to comprehend fully and "the Big One" might yet be 200 years off.

What they do know is that the earth is moving this week on the West Coast as two massive tectonic plates slip past each other .

Link

Global warming 'past the point of no return'

By Steve Connor,

Science Editor
The Independent Published:
16 September 2005

A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover. Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.

LINK

Friday, September 16, 2005
On this day:

Mice with plague vanish at top-level N.J. lab

We have the situation with destroyed labs in N.O. after the hurricane and now this in New Jersey...

Article from SOTT

Ted ShermanNewhouse News Service
Thursday, September 15, 2005 Newark, N.J.

- Three lab mice carrying deadly strains of plague have disappeared from separate cages at a bio-terror research facility in Newark, sparking a hushed, intensive investigation by federal and state authorities. Officials said the animals could have been stolen from the center or simply misplaced in a colossal accounting error at one of the top-level bio-containment labs in New Jersey.
The incident occurred more than two weeks ago and was confirmed only Wednesday after questions were raised by The Star-Ledger newspaper.
The research lab is on the campus of the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey.


It is run by the Public Health Research Institute, a leading center for research on infectious diseases, now participating in a six-year federal bio-defense project to find new vaccinations for the plague - which federal officials fear could be used as a bio-weapon. The university has responsibility for the security of the building. At least two dozen employees and researchers at the lab have been interrogated and in some cases subjected to lie-detector tests.

However, the disease-carrying lab mice may never be accounted for, federal officials said. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also investigating.


"The FBI has expended substantial resources and put many agents into this investigation to satisfy - among other things - the most compelling question of whether public safety is at risk," said agent Steve Siegel, an FBI spokesman.

Wednesday, September 14, 2005
On this day:

If We Understand New Orleans; we understand the Bush strategy

Mike Whitney

September 13, 2005 New Orleans provides us with a reliable template for judging what the Bush administration will do in the event of a massive "casualty-producing" terrorist attack. However depressing, this is useful information.

Special military units will be deployed to the affected areas to patrol the streets in heavily-armored vehicles; conducting house-to-house searches according to their own discretion.

The cities will be placed under martial law; invoking shoot to kill orders for anyone either looting or out of doors after the designated curfew.
Heavily-armed mercenaries and paramilitaries will be used on various assignments that require secrecy or additional security. We assume they will be used to protect dignitaries, perform harsh and illegal interrogations, intimidate dissidents, and subvert efforts by the media to provide accurate information from the region.


A massive media campaign will be mounted to create a narrative of an "involved and compassionate government" providing security to their people in times of crisis.

Is this a fair description of what is taking place in New Orleans?
There's little doubt that the Bush administration capitalized on the hurricane to activate its strategy to militarize the city. There's ample evidence that they had extensive knowledge of the magnitude of the disaster, and yet, chose to do nothing. In fact, for more than 3 days they prevented food, water or medicine from entering the stricken city. Here are just a few of the headlines that illustrate this point, although there are numerous others:


"FEMA won't accept Amtrak's help in evacuations.''"FEMA turns away experienced firefighters.''"FEMA turns back Wal-Mart supply trucks.''"FEMA prevents Coast Guard from delivering diesel fuel.''"Homeland Security won't let Red Cross deliver food.''"FEMA bars morticians from entering New Orleans.''"FEMA blocks 500-boat citizen flotilla from delivering aid.''"FEMA fails to utilize Navy ship with 600-bed hospital on board.''"FEMA to Chicago: Send just one truck.''"FEMA turns away generators.''"FEMA first responders urged not to respond.''

The administration's criminal negligence in the deaths of hundreds if not thousands of New Orleans occupants is not in doubt, nor is their predictable response in countering the bad press. Michael Brown said it best when he noted that he wanted "to convey a positive image of disaster operations to government officials, community organizers, and the general public." Brown's "positive image" of the catastrophe has been left to the usual Bush media-operatives, who have deftly shifted the national dialogue away from "criminal negligence" to the more benign-sounding "government unresponsiveness" or "failure of leadership." Neither of these have anything to do with the facts as we now understand them. Many of the people who died in the disaster were murdered by their government just as surely as if Bush had personally held their heads under water himself.

full story at SOTT

Saturday, September 03, 2005
On this day:

Tropical Strom Maria

Tropical Storm Maria

(formerly Tropical Depression 14) continues to strengthen well to the east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands as thunderstorms flare near the center of the circulation. This is the earliest formation for the 13th storm in any season since 1851. It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday. Maria's future track is forecast to change from west-northwest to north-northwest, taking the tropical storm well east of Bermuda, and at this point not forecast to affect the U.S.

Another area of low pressure with pulsing thunderstorms around it continues to spin westward over the central Atlantic Ocean. This system has some potential for organization but recently thunderstorm activity has diminished. Any development at this point will be slow to occur as the tropical low scampers to the west.

A broad area of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the Bahamas and is a focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development. There are several clusters of thunderstorms along this weak boundary that could develop tropical characteristics if they persist. Just off the Texas Gulf Coast a cluster of thunderstorms has developed at the end of this boundary and could produce locally heavy rain from Houston to Brownsville. Although tropical cyclones can develop in any month, the climatological peak for tropical cyclone development is September 10 in the Atlantic Ocean Basin.

In the western Pacific, Typhoon Nabi has weakened below super typhoon status and now has top winds of 120 mph. This typhoon may strengthen to 135 mph again as it moves through the islands of southern Japan near Naha over the next day and a half. As Nabi moves into the Sea of Japan between Kyushu, Japan and South Korea in about two and a half days, it is forecast to steadily weaken. All residents and business travelers/tourists visiting the region will need to monitor this very dangerous storm the next several days.

Questions grow over rescue chaos

BBC
Friday, 2 September 2005,
17:13 GMT

Sott

In New Orleans, state officials have described the chaotic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina as a national disgrace.

And increasingly across the country, questions are being asked: "How could this happen?" "Why is help taking so long?" and "How can thousands of Americans be stranded?".

President George Bush was visiting some of the devastated areas of the south on Friday amid growing anger over the federal response to the disaster.
Officials insist their response has been effective - rejecting widespread criticism that the administration was too slow to react to the crisis. [...]


The head of the New Orleans emergency operations, Terry Ebbert, has questioned when reinforcements will actually reach the increasingly lawless city.

"This is a national disgrace. Fema has been here three days, yet there is no command and control," Mr Ebbert said.

"We can send massive amounts of aid to tsunami victims, but we can't bail out the city of New Orleans."

One man, George Turner, who was still waiting to be evacuated, summed up much of the anger felt by the refugees.

"Why is it that the most powerful country on the face of the Earth takes so long to help so many sick and so many elderly people?" he asked.
"Why? That's all I want to ask President Bush."


And John Rhinehart, the administrator of a New Orleans hospital without power and water, said: "I'm beginning to wonder if the government is more concerned about the looting than people who are dying in these hospitals."
There is widespread agreement among commentators that somewhere there has been a breakdown in the system.


The Biloxi Sun Herald in Mississippi asked: "Why hasn't every able-bodied member of the armed forces in south Mississippi been pressed into service?" [...]

‘Major oil spill’ seen on Mississippi River

Capacity of leaking tanks estimated at 160,000 barrels
By Miguel Llanos

ReporterMSNBC
Updated: 6:33 p.m. ET
Sept. 2, 2005

A “major oil spill” has been spotted near two storage tanks southeast of New Orleans, the state Department of Environmental Quality said Friday.

The spill was first spotted Thursday during a flyover, department spokeswoman Jean Kelly told MSNBC.com, “but we still don’t have access to the area.”

The spill was just north of Venice, a town in the Mississippi River Delta, and 65 miles southeast of New Orleans.

Each tank is 20 feet tall and 200 feet in diameter, she said. The department initially estimated that total capacity could be 1 million barrels each but later reduced that to 80,000 each. A barrel of oil is 42 gallons.

Kelly said the department still doesn't know who owns the tanks and therefore can’t be sure how much oil is in them.

The Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska in 1989 involved about 250,000 barrels of oil.

Homeland Security officials were restricting access to the area, and Kelly said the state agency had notified both the Coast Guard and the Environmental Protection Agency so that they can begin clean-up.

Coast Guard officials in St. Louis said they were looking into the report but that their priority was search and rescue in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

The state agency said it was continuing to assess the situation from the air.
The department added that it hoped to soon have two helicopters dedicated to assessing wider areas for environmental problems.