Warning on big quake
24 June 2005Scientists warn that New Zealand is at risk of a massive earthquake, perhaps within the next 10 years.
It was not a matter of if, but when, said Dr Kelvin Berryman, principal scientist at the Institute of Geology and Nuclear Sciences. While New Zealand had been "relatively quiet" in terms of earthquakes in the last 40 years, it was likely something major could happen soon, he said.
"People think Japan and the United States are the most at risk and where earthquakes seem to happen most," Berryman said.
"New Zealand is in the Pacific plate boundary and part of the Pacific rim of fire, and just as much at risk.
"We have alternate corners of the country where the plates are going under each other, which could lead to a megathrust earthquake."
A megathrust earthquake is a destructive quake that occurs where tectonic plates subduct.
After the Boxing Day earthquake and resulting Asian tsunami, the Cabinet had asked scientists for a re-evaluation of New Zealand's tsunami risk. Results of this were not yet available, but Berryman said it could result in a major rethink of the risks.
Earthquakes tended to come in clusters and New Zealand had six earthquakes of more than magnitude 7.0 in 13 years during the 1920s and 1930s, he said.
AdvertisementAdvertisement"I would not be surprised if we moved into a cluster situation over the next decade," Berryman said.
Scientists believed that the big quake would probably start with the rupture of the South Island's alpine fault. When this happened, the resulting quake was likely to be bigger than any to have hit the country since European occupation.
The consensus was that it would have a magnitude of 8.0 on the Richter scale and be capable of causing huge destruction.
Many people had predicted Wellington would have the next major earthquake, said Berryman.
Monitoring had shown strain building up in faultlines in many areas, especially those where it had been hundreds of thousands of years since the last quake.
The east coast from East Cape to Kaikoura was a subduction zone - an area at risk of extensive movement - as was the south-west of the South Island.
posted by ... @ 10:57 AM
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